Straight-Up NFL Picks, Week 7: God help me, I'm riding with Russell Wilson (update: no, I'm not) (2024)

OK, I took the Rams last week because I couldn’t stand the stink of a winless record. I know this section is called “easiest game to pick” but I still like a little intrigue here, which means I won’t be backing a prospective NFC contender (in this case, the Buccaneers) over the coach-less Panthers again.

Instead let’s roll with a Chiefs revival after last week’s loss to the Bills. Buffalo executed the formula to beating Patrick Mahomes perfectly in Week 6, generating pressure without blitzing and using extra defenders to clog his passing lanes. The 49ers are well equipped to do the same … except several key pieces are injured and unlikely to be at full strength for Week 7.

That includes pass rushing havoc generator Nick Bosa, prized offseason cornerback acquisition Charvarius Ward (who is well versed in Mahomes’ wizardry as a former Chief) and breakout safety Talanoa Hufanga. Losing any of those three could pry off a vital gear San Francisco needs in its Kansas City-stopping machine.

So give me a Mahomes revival and a road win for a team that needs to stack victories if it’s going to challenge the Bills for homefield advantage in the AFC.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 1-5 (.167)

The Jets have won three games in a row, which is one more game than the Broncos have won all season. Not only has Russell Wilson been bad — the 29th-best quarterback in the league so far! — he’s also now dealing with a hamstring strain and his backup is Brett Rypien, who has thrown 40 NFL passes and four of them were interceptions.

New York has some tools to crack Denver open. The Broncos’ pass defense is a monster but their rush defense is middling, creating the space for another potential road win that wouldn’t require much from Zach Wilson (110 passing yards in last week’s 27-10 win over the Packers). The Jets’ pass rush is rolling and Wilson’s been sacked a ton and now is even less mobile than before. There are reasons to believe Robert Saleh is about to take the Jets on an honest to goodness four-game winning streak.

But I still can’t back the younger Wilson against this defense, which I imagine will trust its cornerbacks in one-on-one situations and flood early downs with defenders near the line of scrimmage to make life difficult for Breece Hall and Michael Carter. Stopping that run game and forcing a second-year quarterback with major questions left to be answered is the bare minimum strategy for an NFL coach and Nathaniel Hackett is the bare minimum of an NFL coach.

So this game is going to come down to … the 29th-best quarterback in the league right now vs. No. 31. OK, then. Guess I’m picking this one on home field advantage.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 3-3 (.500)

I know it’s not an upset from a betting point of view. But with the way these two teams have played over the last three weeks it feels like one. Since I don’t have a proper underdog pick for Week 7 — I’m 100 percent chalk which, oh no — let’s talk about two teams streaking in opposite directions.

The Jaguars looked like a potential playoff team after a 2-1 start but have cratered to 2-4 since. The first two losses in that streak, to the Eagles and Texans, can be dropped at Trevor Lawrence’s feet (seven turnovers). The third, last week against the Colts, cannot.

Lawrence completed 20 of 22 passes, his run game averaged more than 7.3 yards per carry and the wheels still came off because Matt Ryan threw for 389 yards. But as steady as Daniel Jones has been — and as useful as Jacksonville’s propensity for giving up big gains to opposing running backs through the air will be — he’s not a Ryan-type gunslinger. He’s only got 926 passing yards through six games.

Jones has led his team back from fourth quarter deficits in back-to-back games, but was heavily buoyed by the deficient run defenses of the Packers and Ravens to get there. The Jaguars are solid on the ground, ranking ninth in rush defense DVOA. With that usually-reliable avenue sealed off, the New York passing game will face enough pressure for the cracks to begin to show — and for Jacksonville to snap a three-game losing streak.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 2-4 (.333)